One of the e-mails I receive frequently about the application of advanced statistics in professional hockey regards “PDO”, and why the metric is so often referenced when discussing outlier performance. PDO is nothing more than a combination of shooting percentage and save percentage, expressed in thousands. It’s a simple calculation, but imperative when conducting analysis and forecasting future outcomes. The theory behind PDO is that shooting percentage is primarily luck-driven, and save-percentage is primarily luck-driven, and at the team-level, teams will consistently regress towards this 1,000 (i.e., the league average) number. Teams with extremely high PDO’s, say 1020 and above, are great bets to regress unfavorably. Teams with extremely low PDO’s, say 980 and below, are great bets to regress favorably. From time to time, we’ll see small deviations in genuinely great and genuinely terrible teams. But in most cases, it simply pays to (a) be skeptical that any percentage-fueled run is real; (b) focus on winning the shot-differential battle, because shot-differentials will predict future outcome far better than past shooting and save percentages will. PDO was at the heart of the 2013-2014 Toronto Maple Leafs debate – a team whose predictable and catastrophic end-of-year collapse pushed professional hockey into the analytics era. A bunch of smart hires were made by organizations around the league, and it seemed as though the debate over percentage-fueled runs and team-level shot quality myths were put to bed. Still, there seems to be some lingering doubt. Many, many words have been spilled about the 2013-2014 Colorado Avalanche, a team that – despite endless precaution – decided to double-down on mythological shot quality, ignoring innumerable red flags in the process. It wasn’t just the Avalanche organization buying stock, either. Bovada, an online sportsbook with a vested interest in outcomes, opened with Colorado as a 98.5 point team. On the other hand, that same online sportsbook opened up with the New Jersey Devils as an 83.5 point team – 15-points less than Colorado. Are these two teams fifteen points different? It’s possible the answer is yes, but not in the way you’d think. First, let’s look at each team’s ability to control play via Corsi%, starting with game one of last season and running it through today’s data. We’ll use a 10-game rolling average to smooth out results. Not a whole lot has changed from last year to this year, which is signified by the vertical line at the game 82 mark. New Jersey has consistently earned a better percentage of the shot-share, never once dipping below the 50% threshold over any 10-game stretch. Colorado, on the other hand, has been consistently subpar at controlling play. Other than a five-game window (31-36), they’ve been regularly under 50%. If you looked solely at the possession numbers and were aware of the tight correlation between controlling the puck and winning in today’s NHL, you would think that New Jersey was a playoff caliber team. Colorado? A lottery team. But, the hockey gods are funny sometimes. We know Colorado’s off to a horrendous and predictable 3-6-5 start, but the possession numbers don’t explain why things suddenly went south. Nor does it explain why New Jersey – who was a possession world-beater last year – failed to make the post-season. So, let’s go to the percentages, captured by the aforementioned PDO. Again, it’s more or less a measure of “puck luck”, and the likelihood of a team’s number regressing to 1,000 is extremely strong. We’ll roll Colorado and New Jersey’s PDO over 10-games to again smooth things a bit. Colorado sat well above the 1,000 mark for the vast majority of last season. New Jersey sat well below the 1,000 mark for the vast majority of last season. Whereas Colorado (8.07% Sh%, .931 SV%) saw all of the bounces at 5-on-5, New Jersey (7.12 Sh%, .914 SV%) did not. I think the dividing vertical lines on both of these graphs are amazing in the sense that they capture precisely what we’re looking for in terms of forecasting future outcome. When it came to a team’s ability to control play at 5-on-5 via Corsi%, both teams in 2014-2015 are reasonably near their respective 2013-2014 performance. This is because puck possession is repeatable. On the PDO graph, it’s the total opposite. The shooting and save percentages have flipped entirely, which is consistent with what we have seen in PDO volatility across many different teams over many, many years. New Jersey may have made the right move going from Martin Brodeur to Cory Schneider, but a goaltending switch wouldn’t explain how the team jumped from 26th to 14th in shooting percentage seemingly overnight. Randomness, of course, would. Combine that with generally out-possessing the opposition, and you have a respectable 6-4-2 record. On the Colorado side, the team has seen somewhat unfavorable percentage luck, but it’s far closer to the league averages than anything the team experienced last year. And, of course, the team is still getting drilled in the shot department. It’s a combination that generally ends up in fan bases paying attention to the draft lottery, rather than preparing for the post-season. Thiago Alcantara Jersey .com) - The Oakland Athletics needed to rely on a lot of young pitchers to win an American League West title this season. Rafinha Jersey . The appointment of Boullier continues the behind-the-scenes restructuring at McLaren, who recently brought back former team principal Ron Dennis as its new chief executive. http://www.fcmunichpro.com/Kids-Sebastian-Rudy-Jersey/. 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Sky Sports Mark Butcher rates the teams efforts...Jason Roy 8/10183 runs at 30.00; Strike-rate: 148.78; 1x 50; Highest Score: 78 He silenced some doubters. Im really pleased England stuck with him after his disappointing form in the South Africa series. He hit that match-winning knock in the New Zealand semi-final, 42 against Sri Lanka, and got England off to a flier in the South Africa chase. He would be a nine, but for a duck in the final. Jason Roy struck 78 off 44 balls in Englands semi-final win over New Zealand Alex Hales 5/1066 runs at 13.20; SR: 111.86; HS: 28It didnt quite work out for him at the top of the order, which can happen, just a couple of partnerships of note with Roy, including helping England get off to that flier against South Africa. The back injury which meant he missed the Afghanistan game may have affected him. A slightly disappointing tournament.Joe Root 10/10249 runs at 29.80; SR: 146.47; 2x 50; HS: 83Two wickets at 11.00; Economy: 11.00; Best Bowling: 2-9Superb, full marks. He has the game for all formats, all conditions. He is an incredibly mature performer, and the batsman of the tournament for me. He even pitched in with a couple of big wickets with his off-spin in the final, even more reason to give him 10 out of 10. Joe Root hit 83 off 44 as England chased down a World T20 record of 230 against South Africa Eoin Morgan 6/1066 runs at 13.20; SR: 111.86; HS: 27noHe gets top marks as captain, but didnt perform at all with the bat, so somewhere in the middle is about right. He led the team really well, with his captaincy not reflecting the fact he wasnt scoring any runs. That takes some doing and is a real feather in his cap.Jos Buttler 8/10191 runs at 47.75; SR: 159.16; 1x 50; HS: 66no Jos Buttler again proved his class in T20 cricket ahead of an extended spell in India in the IPL World class. Excellent with the gloves, and brilliant blasting runs down the order for England. Up there as perhaps the most exciting wicket-keeper batsman in the T20 format, with MS Dhoni and Quinton de Kock his only real competition. Ben Stokes 6/1056 runs at 14.00; SR: 169.69; HS: 15Four wickets at 44.75; Econ: 9.58; BB: 3-26Despite the costly final over in the final against the West Indies - which could have happened to anyone - at times with the ball he was outstanding. Had a bit of a rough time of it with the bat, not really making too much of a contribution, which knocks his score down slightly, although he was brilliant as always in the field. Ben Stokes is consolled by team England captain Eoin Morgan after West Indies win the World T20 final Moeen Ali 5/1056 runs at 28.dddddddddddd00; SR: 119.14; HS: 41noFive wickets at 26.00; Econ: 9.35; BB: 2-34Moeen had a quiet time of it, just the one big game with bat and ball against Afghanistan really. England had the option of Liam Dawson, who perhaps could have come in, but he didnt do too much wrong, if a little underused.Chris Jordan 7/1032 runs at 16.00; SR: 94.11; HS: 15Six wickets at 31.33; Econ: 8.17; BB: 4-28 Chris Jordans death bowling impressed throughout the tournament His confidence is growing game by game as a death bowler, doing it as well anyone ever has for England. He is someone who has attracted at bit of stick at times through his England career, but he is an immensely talented cricketer and athlete who has truly enhanced his reputation in this tournament.David Willey 7/1041 runs at 20.50; SR 132.25; HS: 2110 wickets at 15.90; Econ: 7.57; BB: 3-20I was a little surprised before the tournament at talk that if England were only going to play one of their two left-armers, it might be Reece Topley picked. Only because Willey offers so much with the bat and in the field, as well as swinging the new ball. He ended up having a terrific tournament. David Willey celebrates one one his team-high 10 wickets in the tournament Adil Rashid 6/10Five wickets at 32.00; Econ: 8.42; BB: 2-18Perhaps not quite as effective as he and everyone else thought he might be in India. A combination of factors, in particular the surprising lack of turn on the pitches England played on.Liam Plunkett 7/10Two wickets at 51.00; Econ: 6.37; BB: 1-23He was terrific when he came in and should be in all England teams in white-ball cricket, simply because he has real pace and can hit the top of the bat. Had a real impact. Liam Plunkett impressed once he came into the side, Englands most economical bowler James Vince 5/1022 runs at 22.00; SR 122.22; HS: 22Vince gave a clue as to what he might offer in the future and was unlucky not to get more opportunities, but he adds real depth to the squad and will get his chance at some point.Reece Topley 4/10One wicket at 55.00; Econ: 13.20; BB: 1-22 Reece Topley struggled in the opening two games of the tournament, but will bounce back says Butcher A tough baptism to a world tournament for him, but he showed promise in the South Africa series and will come back strongly Im sure. 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